21-0 Status Check

A Quick Update on the Warriors 

I am getting far more milage out of my Warriors model than I ever expected, as they have made it to 21-0. If you are interested in reading how I do my analysis, check out my post on it here. But, almost two weeks and five wins laters, I just wanted to give you an update on how the Warriors' projections are doing. 

For this post, I only use prior that the Warriors were going to be an "average best-team". At this point, I want to focus on this prior for two reasons. First, it actually was my prior. Second, even if I take the prior that they were an average team, not the best team in the league, the results aren't that different. The new information from 21 games updates that prior a lot, such that the two posteriors look pretty similar. 

Here is the updated graphs of my priors, and posteriors, having observed the Warriors with 21 wins and 0 losses.

The graphs look pretty similar to the ones I showed last time. If you look carefully you can see that the projections are that they are slightly better.  

If we look at the table of expected wins this season, we can see there is now a 50% chance they reach 70 wins, and a 20% chance they tie the all-time record of 72 wins. Both of these are pretty significant improvements over my last model. The Warriors have five more wins and no losses in the bank and my model thinks they are slightly better than it did before. Both of these factors drive the improved win projections 

	wins	probability
0	63	0.99
1	64	0.99
2	65	0.97
3	66	0.94
4	67	0.88
5	68	0.78
6	69	0.66
7	70	0.50
8	71	0.34
9	72	0.20
10	73	0.09
11	74	0.04
12	75	0.01
13	76	0.00

Lets see how long the Warriors keep giving me good fodder!